Monday Night Football between the Jets and 49ers features a pair of teams who have dealt with offseason drama. However, the final matchup on the Week 1 NFL schedule also features the first-ever opening week contest between the previous season's leader in yards per play (San Francisco) and leader in opponent yards per play (New York). It's a best-versus-best matchup, with the latest Week 1 NFL odds having San Fran favored by 3.5 points after opening as six-point favorites. The lights were a little too bright for both squads in primetime last season, when New York went 1-4 in such games, while the Niners were 0-2 on MNF.
However, the lone victory by the Jets happened to come in Week 1 when New York defeated Buffalo. Can the Jets pull off another season-opening upset, and how should the shifting NFL Vegas odds for this contest affect your Week 1 NFL picks against the spread? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL oddsandNFL bettinglines on thespread,money line, andover-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 1 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Los Angeles' offense will look vastly different in 2024 after wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler departed this offseason. Luckily for the Chargers, quarterback Justin Herbert enters the 2024 season healthy after dealing with injuries in 2023.
Herbert played in just 13 games last season but was effective in Los Angeles' 24-17 win over the Raiders on Oct. 1, 2023. Herbert threw for 167 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 27 yards and two scores. He's had success against the Raiders throughout his career, throwing 15 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions while rushing for three scores. In addition, the Raiders are 1-5 in their last six games played in September. SportsLine's model sees that trend continuing in Week 1 as the Chargers cover the spread over 60% of the time in Jim Harbaugh's debut as Los Angeles' head coach.See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. The Cardinals franchise has made five previous trips to Buffalo, and the Cards have failed to cover in all five. The Bills' ATS success against Arizona extends beyond Orchard Park, N.Y., as Buffalo is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight meetings overall with Arizona.
As dynamic as Kyler Murray is, no one can touch Josh Allen when it comes to dual-threat productivity. His 26 games with both a passing TD and a rushing TD since 2020 are nine more than any other QB, and the appointment of Joe Brady as OC improved Allen's care with the ball. Allen had 14 TOs over the 10 games with Ken Dorsey as OC compared to just eight TOs in the nine games under Brady. With Murray lacking that caution (seven total fumbles over his last seven games), Buffalo (-5.5) is expected to continue its spread success by covering almost 70% of the time.See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 1 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time.You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads
Get Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine
Friday, Sept. 6
Packers vs. Eagles (-2, 49.5) -- in Brazil
Sunday, Sept. 8
Steelers at Falcons (-3.5, 42)
Cardinals at Bills (-6.5, 47.5)
Titans at Bears (-3.5, 44.5)
Patriots at Bengals (-8.5, 41)
Texans at Colts (+3, 48.5)
Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5, 49)
Panthers at Saints (-4, 41.5)
Vikings at Giants (+1.5, 41)
Raiders at Chargers (-3, 40.5)
Broncos at Seahawks (-6, 41.5)
Cowboys at Browns (-2.5, 41)
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5, 42.5)
Rams at Lions (-4.5, 52.5)
Monday, Sept. 9
Jets at 49ers (-4.5, 43.5)
